Is The American Dream Fading?

Indians have been obsessed with the U.S. for many decades. Whether it was for career opportunities or for education or lifestyle, the U.S. was always the favorable destination for many Indians.

The global financial crisis which is originated from the United States sub-prime mortgage bubble has spread across the world very rapidly. Millions of workers across the world have already lost their jobs. The USA which is the world's biggest economy, taking up about 30 per cent of global GDP, is now also the world's biggest debtor country. The US economy has lost 3.6 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with nearly half of those jobs shed in the past three months. Unemployment rate in the USA rose to 7.6% in January, the highest level since 1992.  

As there are thousands of Americans looking for jobs, senate approved strict restrictions on hiring of H-1B workers by financial services firms that receive federal bailout funds. This could hit the prospects of many skilled Indian workers. Some pundits are warning that this recession could last up to three years.

Has the great American dream ended for Indians?

The U.S. Senate approved restrictions on the hiring of H-1B workers by financial services firms that receive federal bailout funds, but it didn't bar the hiring of foreign workers as reported in Indian media. Currently the prospects for Indian workers may be grimmer but once the recession ends American companies will again start hiring foreign workers. The outsourcing companies may have temporarily affected.  But this recession will eventually lead more companies to outsource many jobs to low cost countries like India. So there are still good prospects for outsourcing industry.

The global policy response to the credit crunch seems to be moving in the right direction to end the recession. At the same time political uncertainty in the USA is over and world leaders have clarified their stimulus plans. American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan approved by senate is expected to save or create over 3 million jobs while investing in priorities like health care, energy, and education that will jumpstart economic growth.

Good news for Indian youth!

I’m sure there will be fewer takers for the courses like Computer Engineering, MCA and MBA in coming years. Many graduates will prefer jobs in govt. sector than private sector. Many young Indians may consider this as end of the great American dream. But the truth is there will be huge demand for foreign workforce in the USA in coming years.

Reports indicate that U.S. businesses face a shortage of millions of workers in the next 10 years due to the baby-boomer* generation approaching retirement. Generation X** is only about half the size of the Baby Boom generation which leaves a smaller pool to draw from. Industries such as oil and gas, manufacturing, the federal government and health care are especially feel the strain. IBM, which has older workers than many technology companies, is going to face severe shortage.

So there will be huge demand for foreign workers in the USA in coming years. As India produces millions of engineers every year, many companies in the USA will eventually turn to India in the next decade to fill those positions. Current cap on H-1B visas may significantly be increased in the next 10 years to cope with increasing demand.

Advice to young graduates!

Young Indian graduates who are currently feeling the pinch of recession should consider going for another degree (M.tech, MBA, Ph.D etc..). You might be worried about the initial costs of your education, but your small investment now can pay huge dividends in the long run. Even if you ultimately choose a career for which you do not need an additional degree, having your degree can give you a leg up when competing for jobs. 

Many pundits say “In times of crisis there also is great opportunity for the bold and the brave”. "It ultimately forces us to do things better and smarter”. So look for opportunities. Keep your dreams alive.

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*People born between (and including) 1946 and 1964. After American soldiers returned home from World War II in1946, the United States experienced an explosion of births (hence the name baby boom) that continued for the next 18 years, when the birth rate began to drop. In the 1990s, approximately 76 million people in the United States were born in the baby boom years, representing approximately 29% of the country's population.

**Generation X is the generation next in line behind the Baby Boom.  It's only about half the size of the Baby Boom generation.